Home Corona R-value below 1 now! A sign of situation getting under control?

R-value below 1 now! A sign of situation getting under control?


In last couple of months, cases of Covid-19 kept rising. They peaked above 4 lacs, in early May. Now, there is a good news. First time in few months, the R-value, i.e. the rate of spread of Covid-19, has fallen a notch below 1, on 15th May. It had touched 1.32 in March. This will bring sigh of relief for healthcare professionals and government.

R-value is a transmissibility of virus. Scientist rate any disease’s ability to spread, through R-value. It is the average no of people, that one infected person will pass on virus to. The R-value of Coronavirus- officially known as Sars-Cov-2, has been a critical measure for scientist, during this pandemic.

Based on the data, till 25th March, scientists tracking the pandemic’s progress through computer models, found that the national average of R-value touched 1.32 in India. It was an alarming rise. The health officials and experts had warned that, the ongoing second wave of the Covid-19 epidemic was likely to worsen in the coming weeks, necessitating “re-invigoration of the public and private healthcare systems”.

Bhramar Mukherjee, a researcher at the University of Michigan’s School of Public Health tweeted that “Even if the fatality rate is low, letting infections grow (seen from the rising R value trend) will eventually lead to a larger total number of deaths”.

The situation panned out exactly in the manner it was warned about.

Hope, with falling R-value the situation will start getting under control. However, the scientist believe that beds in hospitals will be occupied through much of June- July and by August this year, there will be some respite. No. of active cases could fall significantly. Focused, Vaccination drive will pave way for better days in India, after gloomy year.


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